New Report Finds ObamaCare Expansion States Have Enrolled More Than Double Projected Number of Adults


Massive enrollment overruns leave taxpayers, truly needy at risk

A new study, released today by the Foundation for Government Accountability, found that all ObamaCare expansion states with available data have enrolled more able-bodied adults than these states said would ever possibly enroll. Meanwhile, nearly 600,000 truly needy individuals languish on waiting lists nationwide.

The report is authored by FGA’s Vice President of Research Jonathan Ingram and Senior Research Fellow Nic Horton. It surveys every ObamaCare expansion state.

Of all expansion states, 24 made projections and have released at least 12 months of actual enrollment data. Every single one of these states have enrolled more adults than projected, by an average of 110 percent.

Here are some of the biggest offenders:

  • Kentucky has enrolled more than twice as many adults as expected, exceeding projections by 134 percent. Former Gov. Steve Beshear’s administration projected 188,000 able-bodied adults would ever sign up for expansion, but more than 439,000 signed up less than two years after the program launched. Cost overruns total $3.3 billion so far.
  • Colorado has exploded past their projections, exceeding their projected maximum by 139 percent. Less than three years in to the program, the state has blown past their max projection of 187,000 adults, enrolling 446,135 adults. The expansion is over budget by more than half a billion dollars.
  • And in Arkansas, home of the supposedly “conservative” version of ObamaCare expansion, the state has enrolled over 100,000 more able-bodied adults than anticipated, exceeding maximum projections by 51 percent so far. In addition to massive cost overruns, 79 Arkansans with developmental disabilities on the state’s Medicaid waiting list have died since the legislature opted in to ObamaCare.

“ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion was a failure from Day One because it redirects limited taxpayer funds away from the truly needy and to able-bodied adults – all while hundreds of thousands of truly needy individuals across the country wait for services,” said FGA’s Nic Horton.

“But this enrollment explosion worsens the outlook for our nation’s vulnerable even more. More dollars spent on ObamaCare’s expansion means even fewer dollars for those who truly need help. It’s simply wrong.”

Without any options to control enrollment, state policymakers are across the country will soon be facing budget crises, creating more upward pressure on Congress to give states options to rollback ObamaCare.

The report can be read here.

About FGA

The Foundation for Government Accountability is a non-profit, multi-state think tank that specializes in health care and welfare policy. To learn more, visit