Work, Not Welfare, Is the Best Way To Promote Health Care Coverage

Overview

Some on the Left, who have failed to make a convincing argument for more states to expand Medicaid, are now arguing that states must do so to help plug a so-called “coverage gap” in the health insurance market.^1-2

But doing so would increase the costs of an already bloated program, taking resources from the truly needy. At the same time, Medicaid expansion would reduce the workforce, add to hospital losses, and kick people off their private insurance plans.^3-5

A better solution is for states to encourage work. Just part-time work at an entry-level job is enough for a person to escape dependency—and work generally puts people on a path to self-sufficiency.^6-10

Medicaid growth is out of control

The Medicaid program was originally intended as a safety net for truly needy Americans—such as individuals with disabilities, low-income children, pregnant women, and seniors.¹¹ But the expansion of Medicaid through ObamaCare fundamentally altered the program, prioritizing able-bodied, working-age adults over the truly needy.¹²

At the turn of the century, only 35 million Americans were enrolled in the program, and this number increased to 57 million immediately before expansion took effect.¹³ Since then, enrollment peaked at 100 million, largely driven by able-bodied adults.¹⁴ The Medicaid program no longer focuses on the truly needy, as 40 percent of enrollees—the largest enrollment group—are able-bodied adults.¹⁵

This surge in enrollment has been accompanied by a surge in costs. Total Medicaid costs in the states have increased from $406 billion in 2013—the year before expansion—to an estimated $874 billion in 2023.^16-17 This growth is not slowing down. The program has seen a roughly 10 percent increase in costs in each of the past two years.¹⁸

States’ share of these costs has also skyrocketed. In 2013, states spent $178 billion through general funds and other state funds on Medicaid, and the bill had grown to an estimated $285 billion.^19-20 There is no sign of this slowing down, with payments increasing by 16.6 percent from 2022 to 2023 alone.²¹

Despite this growth, welfare advocates call for further expansion

When passed in 2010, ObamaCare used existing Medicaid funding to attempt to force states to offer Medicaid to all adults under 65 with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level.^22-23 However, the Supreme Court ruled that this threat violated the Constitution, allowing states to choose whether to expand their Medicaid population.^24-25

Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia expanded when first allowed, with an additional two states expanding later that year.²⁶ Today, 10 states have wisely avoided Medicaid expansion to able-bodied adults and the costs that come with it.²⁷ These states are facing tremendous pressure to expand from leftist organizations, which are using the so-called coverage gap to push Medicaid expansion as a solution.^28-31

In the ObamaCare exchanges, to be eligible for premium tax credits, individuals must not be eligible for Medicaid and must have a household income between 100 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level.³² In most non-expansion states, able-bodied, childless adults are ineligible for Medicaid, and parents become ineligible at a point below the federal poverty level.³³ These individuals—below the federal poverty level but above the Medicaid threshold—are said to fall into a “coverage gap.” These are the people that welfare expansion advocates want to force onto the taxpayer-funded program.

It is important to remember that expansion would cover able-bodied, working-age adults despite an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent and more job openings (8.1 million) than the number of unemployed people (6.8 million).^34-35

Additionally, expansion has led to numerous problems in states where it has been implemented, and any additional states that expand would face the same issues.

Further expansion would harm states and their businesses and citizens

If the remaining states were to expand, they should expect their enrollment to surge higher than projected. Initial state estimates for expansion enrollment were 6.5 million, while the left-leaning Kaiser Family Foundation projected 8.6 million—actual enrollment was more than 23 million.³⁶

These additional enrollees have led to enormous cost overruns. From 2014 to 2023, Medicaid expansion has cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, $574 billion more than expected.³⁷ Medicaid expansion cost $138.8 billion in 2023 alone, nearly 180 percent more than the projected cost of $49.6 billion.³⁸

Given these underestimates, if the remaining 10 states were to expand, they should expect roughly 11.5 million additional enrollees at a cost of $670 billion.³⁹

Adding millions of people to Medicaid would also harm these states’ small business owners by limiting the workforce. In a sampling of 23 states, there were nearly 13 million able-bodied adults enrolled in Medicaid who reported no income, meaning they were not working at all.⁴⁰ In fact, nearly 60 percent of able-bodied adults aged 18 to 64 enrolled in Medicaid reported no income.⁴¹ Expanding Medicaid in non-expansion states would mean fewer workers to fill available jobs, resulting in poor service, longer wait times, higher costs to owners and customers, and even potential business closures.^42-45

Another problem with expansion is that Medicaid does not pay enough to cover hospital costs in providing services. The resulting Medicaid shortfalls reached $22.3 billion in expansion states in 2021, a 117 percent increase since 2013.⁴⁶ If the remaining states expanded, their shortfalls would more than double to $13.2 billion.⁴⁷ These shortfalls, in turn, lead to reduced profits, which put hospitals at risk of closing—and some have.⁴⁸

Addressing the “coverage gap” by expanding Medicaid would grow the program at the expense of private coverage by forcing people onto Medicaid. This already happened in Louisiana, where exchange enrollment of individuals between 100 to 150 percent of the federal poverty level dropped by more than 80 percent, and in Montana, where the same population saw a drop of more than 72 percent.⁴⁹

If the remaining states expanded Medicaid, more than 5.8 million Americans would be forced off private insurance and onto welfare.⁵⁰ This shift alone would cost hospitals more than $8 billion due to the lower payment rates of Medicaid.⁵¹

States should promote work to help build self-sufficiency

A better solution to address the “coverage gap” is for states to encourage people to find meaningful work. Work requirements have a proven track record of success in states.^52-55 When states implemented food stamp work requirements, able-bodied adults left welfare in record numbers.^56-59 Able-bodied adults returned to work in more than 1,000 different industries. Their incomes doubled within a year and tripled within two years, more than offsetting lost welfare benefits—leaving them in a better position financially.^60-63

It does not even require full-time work to help these individuals escape dependency. Across the 10 non-expansion states, an individual would only need to work an average of 21.2 hours a week at an entry-level wage to escape dependency.^64-85 The most hours required is 25.2 hours in Mississippi, while both Florida and Wisconsin only require 19.7 hours to rise out of dependency.

Work—rather than welfare—provides people with more than coverage for health services. It puts money in their pockets for food, housing, and other necessities. This helps people escape the welfare trap, putting them on the path to self-sufficiency.⁸⁶

The Bottom Line: To truly help people escape the “coverage gap,” states should encourage work over welfare.

The Left argues that states should expand Medicaid to address the “coverage gap,” all while the program’s enrollees and costs have skyrocketed in the past decade.

Expansion has already harmed small business owners, hospitals, potential workers, and taxpayers in states that have expanded, and the remaining states can expect similar results if they were to expand. Instead, states should turn to the proven track record of encouraging work. Doing this will help lift people out of dependency and onto the path of self-sufficiency.

REFERENCES

1. Gideon Lukens and Breanna Sharer, “Closing Medicaid coverage gap would help diverse group and narrow racial disparities,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (2021), https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/closing-medicaid-coverage-gap-would-help-diverse-group-and-narrow-racial.

2. CBPP, “The Medicaid coverage gap: State fact sheets,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (2024), https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/the-medicaid-coverage-gap.

3. Jonathan Bain, “The X factor: How skyrocketing Medicaid enrollment is driving down the labor force,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2022), https://thefga.org/research/x-factor-medicaid-enrollment-driving-down-labor-force/.

4. Hayden Dublois and Michael Greibrok, “Medicaid expansion dramatically increases hospital shortfalls . . . and puts their futures at risk,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-expansion-dramatically-increases-hospital-shortfalls/.

5. Jonathan Bain, “How millions of Americans will be kicked off private insurance if the remaining states expand Medicaid,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/how-millions-americans-kicked-off-private-insurance/.

6. Alli Fick and Scott Centorino, “The missing tool: How work requirements can reduce dependency and help find absent workers,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2021), https://thefga.org/research/one-tool-unleash-economic-recovery-solve-labor-crisis/.

7. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Commonsense welfare reform has transformed Floridians’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/commonsense-welfare-reform-has-transformed-floridians-lives/.

8. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Work requirements are working in Arkansas: How commonsense welfare reform is improving Arkansans’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/work-requirements-arkansas/.

9. Welfare reform is moving Mississippians back to work,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/mississippi-food-stamps-work-requirement/.

10. Hayden Dublois, et al., “Food stamp work requirements worked for Missourians,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2020), https://thefga.org/research/missouri-food-stamp-work-requirements/.

11. Jonathan Bain, “Busted budgets and skyrocketing enrollment: Why states should reject the false promises of Medicaid expansion,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2023), https://thefga.org/research/states-should-reject-false-promises-of-medicaid-expansion.

12. Jonathan Bain, “Medicaid mismanagement: How states can restore integrity to the program while saving taxpayers billions,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2023), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-mismanagement-states-can-restore-integrity/.

13. Hayden Dublois and Michael Greibrok, “Medicaid expansion dramatically increases hospital shortfalls . . . and puts their futures at risk,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-expansion-dramatically-increases-hospital-shortfalls/.

14. Jonathan Bain, “Busted budgets and skyrocketing enrollment: Why states should reject the false promises of Medicaid expansion,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2023), https://thefga.org/research/states-should-reject-false-promises-of-medicaid-expansion/.

15. Jonathan Ingram, “House-proposed work requirements would limit dependency, save taxpayer resources, and grow the economy,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2023), https://thefga.org/research/house-proposed-work-requirements/.

16. NASBO, “State expenditure report: Examining fiscal 2013-2015 state spending,” National Association of State Budget Officers (2015), https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/SER%20Archive/State%20Expenditure%20Report%20(Fiscal%202013-2015)S.pdf. (p56)

17. NASBO, “2023 state expenditure report: Fiscal years 2021-2023,” National Association of State Budget Officers (2023), https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/SER%20Archive/2023_State_Expenditure_Report-S.pdf. (p65)

18. Ibid.(p64)

19. NASBO, “State expenditure report: Examining fiscal 2013-2015 state spending,” National Association of State Budget Officers (2015), https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/SER%20Archive/State%20Expenditure%20Report%20(Fiscal%202013-2015)S.pdf. (p 56)

20. NASBO, “2023 state expenditure report: Fiscal years 2021-2023,” National Association of State Budget Officers (2023), https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/SER%20Archive/2023_State_Expenditure_Report-S.pdf. (p65)

21. Ibid.(p64)

22. Sarah M. Lyon, et al., “Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. Implications for insurance-related disparities in pulmonary, critical care, and sleep,” Annals of the American Thoracic Society (2014), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4225799/.

23. MACPAC, “Medicaid expansion to the new adult group,” Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (2023), https://www.macpac.gov/subtopic/medicaid-expansion/.

24.  COTUSblog, “National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius,” SCOTUSblog (2024), https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-federation-of-independent-business-v-sebelius/.

25. MACPAC, “Medicaid expansion to the new adult group,” Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (2023), https://www.macpac.gov/subtopic/medicaid-expansion/.

26. CRS, “Overview of the ACA Medicaid expansion,” Congressional Research Service (2021), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10399.

27. MACPAC, “Medicaid expansion to the new adult group,” Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (2023), https://www.macpac.gov/subtopic/medicaid-expansion/.

28. Gideon Lukens and Breanna Sharer, “Closing Medicaid coverage gap would help diverse group and narrow racial disparities,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (2021), https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/closing-medicaid-coverage-gap-would-help-diverse-group-and-narrow-racial.

29. CBPP, “The Medicaid coverage gap: State fact sheets,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (2024), https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/the-medicaid-coverage-gap.

30. Patrick Drake, et al., “How many uninsured are in the coverage gap and how many could be eligible if all states adopted the Medicaid expansion?,” KFF (2024), https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/how-many-uninsured-are-in-the-coverage-gap-and-how-many-could-be-eligible-if-all-states-adopted-the-medicaid-expansion/.

31. Sherry A. Glied and Mark A. Weiss, “Impact of the Medicaid coverage gap: Comparing states that have and have not expanded eligibility,” The Commonwealth Fund (2023), https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2023/sep/impact-medicaid-coverage-gap-comparing-states-have-and-have-not.

32. Internal Revenue Service, “Eligibility for the premium tax credit,” U.S. Department of Treasury (2024), https://www.irs.gov/affordable-care-act/individuals-and-families/eligibility-for-the-premium-tax-credit.

33. Patrick Drake, et al., “How many uninsured are in the coverage gap and how many could be eligible if all states adopted the Medicaid expansion?,” KFF (2024), https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/how-many-uninsured-are-in-the-coverage-gap-and-how-many-could-be-eligible-if-all-states-adopted-the-medicaid-expansion/.

34. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The employment situation – June 2024,” U.S. Department of Labor (2024), https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.

35. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Job openings and labor turnover survey,” U.S. Department of Labor (2024), https://www.bls.gov/jlt/home.htm.

36. Medicaid Budget and Expenditure System, “Medicaid enrollment – New adult group,” Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (2024), https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/6c114b2c-cb83-559b-832f-4d8b06d6c1b9/data?conditions[0][property]=enrollment_year&conditions[0][value]=2023&conditions[0][operator]=%3D&conditions[1][property]=enrollment_month&conditions[1][value][0]=7&conditions[1][value][1]=8&conditions[1][value][2]=9&conditions[1][operator]=in.

37. Jonathan Bain and Jonathan Ingram, “Medicaid expansion: Busting budgets, bankrupting taxpayers, and displacing the truly needy,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-expansion-budgets-taxpayers-displacing-truly-needy/.

38. Ibid.

39. Jonathan Bain, “Busted budgets and skyrocketing enrollment: Why states should reject the false promises of Medicaid expansion,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2023), https://thefga.org/research/states-should-reject-false-promises-of-medicaid-expansion/.

40. Data obtained from responses to public records requests.

41. Ibid.

42. Ramsey, “Small-business labor crisis report 2023,” Ramsey (2023), https://www.ramseysolutions.com/business/small-business-labor-crisis.

43. Martha C. White, “America’s small businesses are running out of workers,” CNN Business (2022), https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/economy/worker-shortage-small-business/index.html.

44. Skynova, “Business report on labor shortage experiences,” Skynova (2024), https://www.skynova.com/blog/businesses-report-on-their-labor-shortage-experiences.

45. Ipsos, “Half of small businesses remain concerned with inflation, report worker shortage,” Ipsos (2023), https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/half-small-businesses-remain-concerned-inflation-report-worker-shortage.

46. Hayden Dublois and Michael Greibrok, “Medicaid expansion dramatically increases hospital shortfalls . . . and puts their futures at risk,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-expansion-dramatically-increases-hospital-shortfalls/.

47. bid.

48. Ibid.

49. Jonathan Bain, “How millions of Americans will be kicked off private insurance if the remaining states expand Medicaid,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/how-millions-americans-kicked-off-private-insurance/.

50. Paige Terryberry, “Medicaid expansion deceives states and harms the truly needy,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2024), https://thefga.org/research/medicaid-expansion-deceives-states/.

51. Ibid.

52. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Commonsense welfare reform has transformed Floridians’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/commonsense-welfare-reform-has-transformed-floridians-lives/.

53. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Work requirements are working in Arkansas: How commonsense welfare reform is improving Arkansans’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/work-requirements-arkansas/.

54. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Welfare reform is moving Mississippians back to work,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/mississippi-food-stamps-work-requirement/.

55. Hayden Dublois, et al., “Food stamp work requirements worked for Missourians,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2020), https://thefga.org/research/missouri-food-stamp-work-requirements/.

56. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Commonsense welfare reform has transformed Floridians’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/commonsense-welfare-reform-has-transformed-floridians-lives/.

57. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Work requirements are working in Arkansas: How commonsense welfare reform is improving Arkansans’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/work-requirements-arkansas/.

58. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Welfare reform is moving Mississippians back to work,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/mississippi-food-stamps-work-requirement/.

59. Hayden Dublois, et al., “Food stamp work requirements worked for Missourians,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2020), https://thefga.org/research/missouri-food-stamp-work-requirements/.

60. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Commonsense welfare reform has transformed Floridians’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/commonsense-welfare-reform-has-transformed-floridians-lives/.

61. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Work requirements are working in Arkansas: How commonsense welfare reform is improving Arkansans’ lives,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/work-requirements-arkansas/.

62. Jonathan Ingram and Nicholas Horton, “Welfare reform is moving Mississippians back to work,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2019), https://thefga.org/research/mississippi-food-stamps-work-requirement/.

63. Hayden Dublois, et al., “Food stamp work requirements worked for Missourians,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2020), https://thefga.org/research/missouri-food-stamp-work-requirements/.

64. In most states, the most recent data for average entry-level wages is from 2021 or 2022. This analysis adjusts the most recently reported average entry-level wage for those states by the increase in wages at the 10th percentile, 25th percentile, and median wages in those states between the reporting date and May 2023, the most recent data available. These adjustments to not account for wage growth since May 2023, which would further reduce the number of work hours needed to exit poverty as hourly wages have continued to grow.

65. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “May 2023 occupational employment and wage statistics (OEWS) survey,” U.S. Department of Labor (2024), https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23st.zip.

66. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “May 2022 occupational employment and wage statistics (OEWS) survey,” US. Department of Labor (2023), https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm22st.zip.

67. Bureau of Labor Statistics,  “May 2021 occupational employment and wage statistics (OEWS) survey,” U.S. Department of Labor (2022),

68. In March 2024, the average entry-level wage in Alabama was $12.57. See, e.g., Labor Market Information Division, “March 2024 occupational employment and wage estimates,” Alabama Department of Labor (2024), https://www2.labor.alabama.gov/oes/wage/Statewide.pdf.

69. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in Florida was $13.23 per hour. See, e.g., Bureau of Workforce Statistics and Economic Research, “2022 Florida occupational employment and wages: Statewide,” Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (2023), https://www.floridajobs.org/workforce-statistics/data-center/statistical-programs/occupational-employment-statistics-and-wages.

70. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Florida grew by 11.2 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 11.3 percent, and the median wage grew by 10.4 percent. This growth would put Florida’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $14.61 to $14.73 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $14.68.

71. In May 2021, the average entry-level wage in Georgia was $11.48 per hour. See, e.g., Workforce Statistics Division, “Georgia Labor Market Explorer: 2021 occupational employment and wage statistics,” Georgia Department of Labor (2022), https://explorer.gdol.ga.gov/vosnet/default.aspx.

72. Between May 2021 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Georgia grew by 19.5 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 14.0 percent, and the median wage grew by 18.6 percent. This growth would put Georgia’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $13.08 to $13.71 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $13.47.

73. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in Kansas was $12.68 per hour. See, e.g. Labor Information Center, “Kansas wage survey: May 2022 estimates,” Kansas Department of Labor (2023), https://klic.dol.ks.gov/vosnet/lmi/default.aspx?enc=vLa15KtdCzQQMP6jrcRdIQ==.

74. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Kansas grew by 13.9 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 10.3 percent, and the median wage grew by 8.1 percent. This growth would put Kansas’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $13.71 to $14.44 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $14.05.

75. In May 2023, the average entry-level wage in Mississippi was $11.47 per hour. See, e.g., Office of Public Information, “Mississippi occupational employment and wage estimates,” Mississippi Department of Employment Security (2023), https://mdes.ms.gov/media/398093/msoes.pdf.

76. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in South Carolina was $12.05 per hour. See, e.g., Labor Market Information Division, “SC Works 2022 occupational and employment and wage statistics,” South Carolina Department of Employment and Workforce (2023), https://jobs.scworks.org/vosnet/Default.aspx.

77. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in South Carolina grew by 4.4 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 6.2 percent, and the median wage grew by 8.6 percent. This growth would put South Carolina’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $12.58 to $13.09 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $12.82.

78. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in Tennessee was $12.62 per hour. See, e.g., Workforce Insights, Research, and Reporting Engine Division, “2022 occupational employment and wage statistics,” Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (2023), https://jobs4tnwfs.tn.gov/vosnet/Default.aspx.

79. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Tennessee grew by 14.3 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 9.1 percent, and the median wage grew by 9.7 percent. This growth would put Tennessee’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $13.78 to $14.42 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $14.02.

80. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in Texas was $12.49 per hour. See, e.g., Information Innovation and Insight Division, “Work in Texas: 2022 occupational employment and wage statistics,” Texas Workforce Commission (2023), https://www.workintexas.com/vosnet/Default.aspx.

81. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Texas grew by 7.0 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 7.4 percent, and the median wage grew by 5.7 percent. This growth would put Texas’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $13.21 to $13.42 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $13.33.

82. In May 2022, the average entry-level wage in Wisconsin was $13.83 per hour. See, e.g., Bureau of Workforce Information and Technical Support, “May 2022 occupational employment and wage statistics,” Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (2023), https://jobcenterofwisconsin.com/wisconomy/wits_info/downloads/OES/all_areas2022.xlsx.

83. Between May 2022 and May 2023, the 10th percentile wage in Wisconsin grew by 7.6 percent, the 25th percentile wage grew by 7.1 percent, and the median wage grew by 4.2 percent. This growth would put Wisconsin’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $14.42 to $14.87 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $14.70.

84. Wyoming does not report average entry-level wages in its annual occupational employment and wage statistics report. See, e.g., Research and Planning Division, “Wyoming occupational employment and wages: September 2023,” Wyoming Department of Workforce Services (2023), https://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/LEWISSeptember2023ECI/toc000.htm.

85. In other states, the average entry-level wage was approximately 110 percent of the 10th percentile wage, 88.3 percent of the 25th percentile wage, and 63.3 percent of the median wage. This would put Wyoming’s average entry-level wage likely in the range of $14.29 and $14.65 by May 2023, with a midpoint estimate of $14.44.

86. Alli Fick and Scott Centorino, “The missing tool: How work requirements can reduce dependency and help find absent workers,” Foundation for Government Accountability (2021), https://thefga.org/research/one-tool-unleash-economic-recovery-solve-labor-crisis/.