FGA’s Hayden Dublois Testifies Before Ways and Means Committee About CBO Scoring Mishaps
- BY FGA
On February 11, FGA’s Data and Analytics Director, Hayden Dublois, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee’s Oversight Subcommittee. In his testimony, he highlights the ways that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) falls short in its scoring of federal legislation. Congress relies heavily on CBO scores when considering legislation, so missteps can and should give legislators pause on the effectiveness of this scoring system.
Congress, Dublois argues, should not only evaluate CBO’s fiscal scores with scrutiny, but also consider amending law to have CBO’s baseline more closely resemble reality. He also highlighted the importance of using a current policy baseline rather than a current law baseline in the context of the current reconciliation conversation, which is a more accurate way to gauge the impact of tax and revenue decisions.
Excerpt from Dublois’s testimony:
“My testimony will differ slightly from some of my counterparts and focus on a related issue of the capacity of the Congressional Budget Office to accurately estimate the fiscal effects of legislation. Unfortunately, CBO tends to 1) underestimate costs associated with measures that would increase the size of government and 2) overstate the cost of tax relief for Americans.”
“Unfortunately, the cumulative effect of these errors demonstrates CBO’s bias for more government spending and higher taxes…Congress should not only evaluate CBO’s fiscal scores with scrutiny, but also consider amending law to have CBO’s baseline more closely resemble reality.”
CLICK HERE FOR FULL TESTIMONY TEXT
The Worst CBO Blunders
Dublois recently co-authored a report for FGA that highlighted 10 of the worst CBO blunders of the 21st century (so far).
One of the biggest? Medicaid expansion estimates. According to the report, CBO predicted in 2010 that just 13 million people would sign up once Medicaid expansion was fully implemented in all 50 states. By 2019, before the pandemic, enrollment had already reached roughly 19.5 million with 16 states still not having implemented Medicaid expansion.
For more on CBO scoring, read the full paper here.
